A Catastrophic Failure of Prediction

The recession of the late 2000’s is known as one of the worst American financial crises in history. Millions of people lost their homes, jobs, and sense of security. Everyone seems to have their own opinions pertaining to the causes of the massive incident. Nate Silver, who is known for his stellar election predictions and commentary, takes his personal stance in this excerpt from his book The Signal and the Noise.  Two weeks before the 2008 presidential election, ratings scientists were hired by the government to determine the likelihood that mortgage backed securities would default. Silver places much of the blame for the recession on their failed predictions.

A metaphor is used rather effectively to communicate the complex topic. Silver writes, “It was as if the weather forecast had been 86 degrees and sunny, and instead there was a blizzard.” By comparing the event to a weather forecast, Silver taps into the cultural memory of his audience and makes the complexity of mortgage backed securities predications seem austere. The logos of the American audience is also appealed to in Silver’s cause and effect description of the false predictions that caused the recession. It is ultimately due to these rhetorical devices that Silver’s false prediction notion is perceived as an intelligible and convincing theory for the cause of the recession.